Nevertheless, some economic studies have tried to provide estimates on the costs and benefits by focusing on different economic issues.
Given the fact that the negotiators are still far from reaching a final agreement on all involved issues, an (ex ante) estimation of the involved costs and benefits is naturally surrounded by substantial policy uncertainty. The UK government has, since this time, failed to convince a parliamentary majority of the withdrawal agreement and, as a consequence, none of the politically discussed potential outcomes can be ruled out by the end of February 2019.ĭuring the period of political campaigning prior to (and also after) the referendum, the likely economic costs and benefits induced by Brexit for both the UK and the EU have been highly debated. On December 14, 2018, both parties announced the conclusion of the UK's withdrawal agreement and began working on a political declaration that outlined the main issues that should govern the future bilateral relationships. Since then, the UK and EU have been negotiating the terms for the UK's withdrawal. This initiated a two-year window to conclude a withdrawal agreement. On March 29, 2017, the government of the UK officially handed in a letter in Brussels notifying of the country's withdrawal from the European Union, triggering Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union. On Thursday, June 26, 2016, the United Kingdom held a “Brexit referendum,” with the majority of the participating electorate voting in favour of the “leave choice.” As a consequence, David Cameron resigned as prime minister and Theresa May took office. Au sein de l’Union européenne, et relativement au bien-être, les conséquences seront nulles, mais certains pays membres comme l’Irlande pourraient subir des pertes. Pour le Royaume-Uni, les effets négatifs sur le commerce ne seront que partiellement compensés par une augmentation du commerce intérieur et des échanges avec des pays tiers, ce qui engendrera une diminution du revenu réel du pays comprise entre 0,3 % et 5,7 %. En supposant plusieurs scénarios post-Brexit contrefactuels, nos principaux résultats suggèrent que six ans après le Brexit, les exportations de biens du Royaume-Uni vers l’Union européenne pourraient chuter dans des volumes compris entre 7,2 % et 45,7 %. Afin d’évaluer les effets du Brexit sur le bien-être et le commerce, nous proposons dans cet article un nouveau modèle de gravité structurel s’appuyant sur des données longitudinales. Évaluation des effets du Brexit sur le commerce et le bien-être à l’aide d’un modèle de gravité structurel s’appuyant sur des données longitudinales.
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